usdchf looking good for upside

we'll see what the UK markets do, but the following 5 min chart certainly is showing some potential with a higher low apparently printing at a VERY nice level of 61.8 percent

since posting the pair is seeing a bit of a retrace, however I definately am starting to get bullish on this pair

SPIDaily

SPI is heading up to the marked high resistance zone as mentioned earlier today: 'twil be interesting to see if it breaks through or breaks...

eurusd beginning 5min 5wave uptrend?

EURUSD is hinting that it might be starting a 5 min 5 wave uptrend....  Hourly is not so pretty though, and a break of recent highs at (IGMArkets) 1.43 is needed to give confirmation...

USDJPY showing some signs of weakness as it nears top of hrly Channel

On the hourly, this "mid trend wave count" appears to be conforming IE showing weakness as price nears the top of the marked channel on the hourly.

"Mid trend" as there was no buy signal at the start of this wave count, IE no divergence on the MACD mavs that hinted at the rise

Note the stochastics on this timespan are showing divergence whilst up in Oversold region...



15 minutes is looking a little bit better for the MACD MAV v Wave count combo:

Ig Equivalent of SPI Daily Chart

for wazza APM1-9:50

UJ for 10

No real clean turn signals on the lower timespans on this pair for my "stuff" at the moment...

"intra trend" best fit is the following hourly, n would consider the channel to be the more usefule than the potential of MACD based wave hints.

Larger timespans do suggest a turn for the upside is in the cards, but this cureent fortnight or so of up action does resemble a bear channel/flag

if marked MACD mav based wave count correct then price is currently in a wave 5 up and expectations are that such a wave will be around the same length as that for marked waves 1 to 3, with possibility of 1.618 times waves 1 to 3 as marked with vertical line segments and thin horixontal red line

15min tline break nice trade setup

USDCHF DailyChannel

USDCHF Conjecture for Hrly

No real clue on hourly at the moment...
divergence on MACD MAVs suggests downside possible and after 5 wave up possibly three wave retrace... the botttom dotted blue fib line is the 61.8% retrace which also coincides with a 1.618 extension of conjectured A??? and equal measure move from current price of top to A???

USDCHF bounce on 38.2% retrace AGAIN (thanks 10 :))

Thanks to fellow trader 10, pointing out the .88 level as a bounce... Inneresting how this is a same level retrace as that of initial surge up on marked waves 1 to 3.

EURUSD may be ready to resume drop now

Critical times on the EURUSD now nearing the top of the 5 min uptrend mentioned earlier

current price action at the left of chart is suggesting trend change possibility on this small 5 minute timespan, with lower highs printing

VERY close to the top of the hourly channel mentioned in Previous post.
There is without a doubt the potential that we are entering into another corrective wave down here as occurred 5 hrs ago, however I am starting to build a short position due to greater timespan conjecture that we have a little bit more of a drop to go on this pair... little bit more of a drop being roughly 400 points.








The hourly shows the channel as mentioned earier... still a ways from that there top and not inconceivable that we may see a surge to bring price up there... however as said am building short possy, entering a bit early due to current price action looking like downside at least short term (on 5 min timespan) has weight.

Potential change of trend occurring on the 5 min 15 min EURUSD

A bit tight, price is entering a price trap on the 5 min as we speak after forming a lower high
I am bullish USD at the mo, variety of factors,

wave counts 5 mins COULD suggest this is a 4 wave down of a 5 wave trend up...
and that is more supported by the MACD stuff...






zooming in a bit more on the 5 min about 15 mins later...

(Writing this up as we speak...)

So, here on the 5 minute we have a great position for this to be bouncing for new highs now, possible 5 wave as mentioned... darn it, using MT4 and just not as good or familar with the pack ge to be able to draw out timespans as well as I can on IG.

laptop

11 Inch i7 powered Trading laptop

TradingDesk

Rearrangement of trading desk.

now consists of 3 22" monitors and one 20 inch monitor as a single row... Powered by a desktop with 1 AGP and one PCI graphics card

another 22" monitor on top and laptop to the side (powering the top monitor also)

Poor quality complete picture:

Poorer quality PanoramicMontage (trader's eye view):

Happy :) :) :)

Daily and Weekly SPI charts

 Weekly and daily spi charts,

Daily showing trendlin support at current levels.

USDCHF ramble

I've been banging on about this pair almost exclusively on twitter for the last week or so, so figured I should put everything down in a single post here to consolidate my guff...

This pair has conformed well to my "stuff" on the hourly and indeed 'twas the Hourly which had me getting all long oriented at the start of May.

here is the marked up chart (click it to get a bigger view)

'Kay.. first up, note the green line on the MACD highlighting divergence on this indicator since mid-late may, where lows weree rising on the indicator whilst lows were falling on Price.

While this was unfolding, and I confess I got bitten quite a few times trying to get long a week earlier than I should have, price was forming a quite discernible wedge.
Check the start of the wedge and its "height" as marked by the purple segment and highlighted by a purple arrow... Theories state with a pattern like this a first target on a break is the height of the wedge at the start of the pattern, and this length also can be darned useful for checking out repeating ranges as price action unfolds...

anyways, we finally got a break UPWARDS on 5th of may.. and began a plottable up trend... to get more into that uptrend and how I view wm i'll zoom in a bit, and concentrate on what I do with price and the macd

orright... so, after the divergence mentioned, price breaks up... and in doing so the MACD makes it above the zero line and holds.

This gives me a wave 1 to mark on the MACD... and from that point on I ASSUME there will be 5 waves up on the timespan.

If that is to be the case, wave 2 (on the MACD moving averages (MAVs)) must form a low that is higher than the start of wave 1, and a good TRADE entry for wave 2 to wave 3 is on the price high of wave 1 (complex I know but it makes sense after about 100 iterations :P).
A wave 3 on price will form a higher MACD MAV high than wave 1 (as occurred) and a good CLOSE of the wave 2 to wave 3 trade on price is a MACD MAV signal versus slow crossover on the macd, particularly (as in this case but not marked on this chart) if it occurs around the 1.618 extension of wave 1.

Once a countertrend wave 4 appears to occur, the next trade I want to catch is wave 4 to wave 5.
Wave 4 on the MACD Mavs willl form a low lower than theat of wave 2, and often (again as occurred here) will actually dip below the zero line.

Some elliot wave based clues as to where wave 4 on price might bottom include...

Expectation of  small countertrend in the form of 3 waves
Expectation said countertrend will be simple or "clean" (wave 4 differs in structure to wave 2... in this case wave 2 was complex n messy so looking for a clean wave 4 (which we got))

Trade entry for wave 5 gave two opportunities, a great bounce from the 38 percent retrace of waves 1 to 3, and the macd signal MAV moving back up over the zero line, getting us in to wave 5.

Wave 4 bottom also gave a nice low to draw a trendline from start of trend to, which helped to give further entries along the way.

Right now the MACD MAVs are signalling that this total hrly uptrend MAY be nearing completion... I still expect a bit of a final surge up in the next day or two, but am mindful of the Divergence showing on the MACD moving averages now.. (lower highs while price makes higher highs) and the marked dottted black trendline should give clues as to where the final surge might occur or if we are done here.

In terms of targets though, looking at the daily...

A very neat down channel has occurred over the last 4 months, and the top of this channel may well be a place for price to stall... A break above it and perhaps we are going to get a greater or stronger trend, but when/if price hits the top of that channel, I will certainly be open to reorienting my head into downside and shorting mode








Tis interesting to overlay the daily channel on the hourly chart...

the top section of downsloping blue line on this chart shows a section of the daily channel... time n level wise this coincides VERY nicely with a 1.618 extension of waves 1 to 3 on price, and is my ultimate target for this hourly uptrend...

Good trading to all

;)

USDCHF hrly

This is what I am playing with on USDCHF, contending we are in an hrly 5 wave uptrend, with target as marked for 5.

Current resistance as shown by upper trendline (red) is tough, but if we can break and hold above...

USDCHF "Correction" on 15 mins

Long again on USDCHF, claiming a trendline break to the upside on 15 mins. Kinda important time to discern if greater uptrend

still room for downside in what I regard NOW as USDCHF correction... BUT looking at 3 wave down as being indicitave that greater pic is up