Some thoughts on the SPI

Right... first up, My "Tape Read" from Friday suggested that monday would see either an open Greater than cash close, OR (recent addition) price reaching the Cash Close SPI value From Friday, sometime during the Monday Day.

Using IGMarket's Aussie 200 Data, ( THIS WILL DIFFER FROM ACTUAL SPI FIGURES but the movements in price remain similar) Cash Close Friday was at 4183... Market close at End of the US Session was at 4100... The potential for an 80+ upday seems a bit unlikely to me at this stage.. If It Occurs, I will be truly gobsmacked.

In the meantime... A quick look at the 15 min chart from a BULLISH (short term) perspective...

This chart is just looking at the downtrend from mid week.  MACD Moving Averages are not giving me a good clean wave count to be reflected on price at the moment, so price wavs are a bit of a massive conjecture... the greatest support for such things tho, is that a 1.618 extension of marked wave 1 down gives the dotted Green line and a reasonable area for completion of wave 3... I note that  the last little bit of price actionals has given a higher low divergence on the MACD Moving Averages versus thelower low on price... Oft a start of either a wave 4 or wave 1 based on this methodology.... coupled with a break of the (red) 21 ma (yet to be seen if price holds above) and previous tests during the marked wave 3 down of 21 and 41 MAs, this rapid decline HAS satisfied a few requirements along its impulsive decline.

"Tape Read" from US Close suggests SHORT for 8+ points from SPI open... these are short term trades (within the first 20 minutes) and do not give indications for an expected trend for the rest of the day...

From a cynical perspective, 'twould not surprise me to see panic selling on Cash open from those that were long over the weekend, and equally it would not surprise me if the smart money/big boys/Floor trader equivalents were to push price up post the panic selling to rip the hearts out of the non-proffessionals who sold on open, and perhaps suck them into to buying once more...

We shall see eh? :)