m'kay First up the hourly:
At the time that price was moving in that area I made a comment on twitter that Gold is Acting like it is in a down trend.
Sure enough, price over time confirmed that at least in this timespan it was not just an act, but the statement "acting like it is in a downtrend" prolly needs to be quantified a little...
In a downtrend, price tends to reject levels of resistance, in an uptrend price tends to ignore levels of resistance or punch through.
the trendline resistance was touched as per the wick highlighted by the blue dotted arrow, but there was no follow through, even though price had made a couple of attempts at that area in prvios bars. That shizzle DOES NOT happen in an uptrend... and when that shizzle DOES happen.. by golly it's significant and worth noting.
Be that as it may, looking at the light blue arrows, the levels reached over night (Aussie night that is... US day session for the rest of the world) are fairly significant, price is back down at the 50% level of the previous ( rise that terminated a week ago... plentuy of reasons for a bounce here.
The almost flat latest trendline is the most obvious next bit of resistance for gold to dandle with we'll see how and if it reacts there.
IF the marked red MACD wave count is correct, then a wave 3 bottom is still to come... and if said wave 3 bottom DOES come, then:
A: it should be Lower on Price than Wave 1
B: The MACD Mav's should make a lower bottom than the marked wave 1 on them
I would also EXPECT that this bottom on the MACD Mavs will have a higher low on the MAVS with a lower low on price before entering a conjectured wave 4 up.
I have no position at the moment.
The next post, due in about 15 mins or so will take a bit of a look at timespans (relating to the SPI, a different instrument altogether) and how there will be a "correct" timespan for the MACD v Price wave counts... Why the heck am I saying this? well tis not impossible the hrly is not the "Correct" timespan for clean counts with Gold... we'll see... looks like it is doin fine so far.
;)
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