Tech and Ramble on gold

'Kay, for this weekend's Gold Analysis I am going to start off with a 3 hour chart... not cos there is anything magical about the number but because I have been using the 4 hour and lower as working charts and they are full of lines and squiggles, the majority I want left there. By switching to 3, my charting package gives me a clean slate,  so I can simplify the view.

3 Hrly

Applying the MACD waves versus price waves, the uptrend from late June, has conformed almost picture perfect and THEORETICALLY has satisfied 5 waves up as marked.

(Wave counts for uptrend In Purple)

Various wave theories suggest 5 waves up are followed by a retrace of minimum 3 waves... EW uses the ABC markings for the retrace and I've emplyed that methodology hare as CONJECTURE that we are entering into a retrace scenario. BUT note as marked by the most recent Green Arrows on lows and highs, in terms of a definition of a down trend, (Lower Highs, Lower lows) we are but POTENTIALLY halfway through fulfilling this definition, One measly lower High marked at the "b" level, so as much as i want to say "Short Gold forever" a bit of caution is probably worthwhile. (I'm still sticking to the short side though :) )

Of INTENSE interest to me is a bit of fundamental news regarding gold... COMEX (supposedly the largest Gold Trading Exchange) has raised Margin Requirements again... from 27% to 40% I gather, effective starting Monday US time.

When was the last time they raised margin requirements? 23rd of August... What happened then? a 10% decline in price over three days... With the new increase, I do wonder what effect that might have. One recent historical event and the result do not a precedent make, but that is well worth thinking about.

In the meantime though, one can see that Gold has some pretty neat resistance and Support via some triangulating trendlines. The downside sets up some nice scenarios, (Height of mouth of triangle being the expected measure of breakout to downside or upside == length of a = length of c)

Switching to the 4hrly working chart...Just showing the last few weeks

Here I've marked out the conljectured c wave.

Note the most recent black trendline shows a break and retest...

Not much more I can say here MACDs are BARELY hinting at a down trend (MAVs below zero line) Stochastic in no mans land.

Green dotted line shows a 1.618 EXTENSION odf marked wave A... don't mena much but if this is to be the start of a serious downtrend then such would be a good target IF we are about to enter or have entered a third wave down.  All in all though here we have a "coin toss" situation technically.





A quick look at the hourly, of particular note the marked Red Counts on MACD and Price...

Still a bit of a no mans land according to the MACD and its current like for the zero line.. Stochs suggesting downside... and a lot of indicision.

An interesting week next week no doubt.
 

;)