Monday, September 12, 2011

SPI Update

Right... last post on SPI Done during market close on the weekend, I was conjecturing UP... At the time I was wrong as we had down for a further day, Up did not come till AUS overnight last night (US Open Session).

A big swathe of my "broader" analysis is based on shizzle I've developed "on my own" over the last 3 years... a combination of MACD and price wave theory.

I feel like a bit of a lone voice in the wilderness with this methodology (Sniff... so Alone) but in my travels through the interwebs, I have come across the odd article or post which touches on the same... I also remember reading Alexander Elder's (or is it the other way around Elder Alexander... apologies if so) book "Come into my trading room" which touches on similar, and Bill Williamson's "trading Chaos" which also touches on similar in greater detail...  neverthe less a big portion of what I use I've "developed" in relative isolation from other practitioners of this method, if they exist.

In doing so I am constantly learning n refining stuff about it.

One great insight that I am trying to convert into good trading money is finding the appropriate timespan to find "clean" wave counts n correlation between Price and the MACD Moving Averages (MAVs).

the action on the spi and my weekend conjecture based on lowish timespans is a classic "incorrect" timespan gaffe.

My conjecture was based primarily on the 15 minute chart... vis:

twas a reasonable enough conjecture with conts all apparently neato n stuff, but ultimatel Not quite on the ball, as the action for the day saw a significant new low occur 80 odd points below that shown on this (old) chart...









I got the HALFWAY mark of the drop on sunday.. LOL!

but anyways the point I wish to make, going back to the timespans thing, is that there was a far bhetter timespan to be looking at, namely the 30 minute....






Much Neater Eh?

;)

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