Potential place to short gold

When i say potential I mean potential this is a dicey area n a lot of gold bulls will be singing Hellelujah new tops baby after that wee pop in the last 3 hrs. (which I DID take longs on now closed)
'kay first a look at the hourly:

'kay it's a working chart n so crowded, Plenty of reasons to stay long. BUT that dotted green line, and price's reaction too it is significant.
Based on wave counts marked on MACD and Ssumptin/conjecture equivalent counts on price...
If the MACD wave count is correct in identifying the price wave count, then wave 1 on price is significant.... It can be said that a good price target, after wave one completion for a wave 5 completion is 1.618 times wave 1.  That is the dotted green line, based on the supposition that the MACD counts are correctly identifying the Price counts.
so current price level, give or take $5 gold dollars, is a rasonable completion of a trend up, und reverse engineering that is a reasonable place for a reversal on this time span. Now sure, check the various pairs of Equal Measure moves arrow on price, we have plenty of scope for higher based purely on them... but if one considers the previous top (to the left n not shown on this chart) as being a significant top, and that gold MAY be in a still to complete downtrend, with this current uptrend being a RETRACE of a first move down... one cane have an expectation that UPSIDE moves in a downtrend will tend to be truncated to the upside.

I am also mindful of the following working 4 hour chart:

Now on this chart I am more inclined to not take too much stock of the MACD counts marked, Primarily again as I am looking at that first drop as POTENTIALLY being wave 1 of either a three wave or 5 wave DOWN.
The marked sones for sell and buy remain from original analysis that helped bring the initial drop to my attention.

Note the bleu marked Fibb retraces here. we ar testing the 71.8 retrace right now, the MACDS are not convncingly up, the stochastics ar Just in the overbought area, all good places  for POTENTIAL RESUMPTION of down trend which could bring price down into the "good buy zone" area.

I am definately not being definitive, n watching the lower timespans for opps for short if they present... Just sayin is all... i don't reckon ANYONE can definitively say uptrend in terms of weeks or Downtrend in terms of weeks at this stage.  Coin toss baby... my thoughts though are dside oriented.