Gold update

Current Hrly chart:

This chart shows gold's decline frrm the high of 6th of September thru to markets close this week.

Rude as it is, I actually went long gold Friday... a few reasons are in the chart.
Reason 1
The marked Fibonnacci retracement combo is based on the first decline from the high, to the first bottom.

During gold price's subsequant travels, the first retrace terminated between teh 61.8 and the 76.4 fib levels.

Fib retraces and subsequant extensions seem to work based on the higher the retrace the lesser the extension.

An extension of 123% of the first leg is shown by the thick dotted light blue line.

This level also coincides with the bottom of the interim channel with the black 5 wave count on price.

Also Very close to the level as marked by the Equal measure move speculation of the Thick red Arrows

So a good target level, and of interest as a potential bounce point

Finally an esoteric Wink MACD MAvs signal showd the long signal occurring as marked by the small green arrow. A plough through significant resistance of the first wave's low and a ride back up to the top of the black channel...

Now Fundamentallybased pureluy on COMEX margin Hikes, I can see more downside as a possibility and significant lower historical gaps (not shown on this chart) also have an attraction about em.

In the meantime thoughthe price action in this most recent decline (marked wave count on price) shows a corrective and (relatively) shallow decline. I am open to further upside at this stage, Possibly only to the top of the lime green marked channel, but Technically I beleive as high as 1860 (on this chart) is valid first.

Esoteric MACD Shizzle...

The manner in which the MACD MAVs have just crossed and bracketed a histogram bar, with the subsequant barr being less suggests to me that this is not a sustainable, new High up move.

There is a similar example of this phenomenon on the First up move in the current chanell..

 

And the middle up move as well... not shown here... Esoteric stuff, not so easily tradeable.

Future direction, based on this timespan?  Guesses guesses guesses. I have closed my long on the black channel hit, I am looking to see what price does around this level with the potential of stall/failure at the limegreen larger channel top, I will wait.

The 4 hr shows some interesting stuff... Firstup Big picture view of the latest uptrend...

FROM an MA on price perspective, Price is riding the declining 41 MA, 21 ma cluster. (pink dotted n currently red solid MAs).

Something of interest to people who may beleive that a MACD moving Average crossover denotes uptrend.. there are two thin vertical lines on the price chart, which coincide with MACD Mav crossovers and Lo n behold, the leftmost was a near high, and the rightmost was a high... this xover thang is NOT (by itself) a signal for commencing an uptrend..s these two examples clearly show, you need the right crossover.

Also of interest, the most recent trendlines on the stochastic.. and the ellipsed bottoming and topping patterns... This latest UP break could well suggest the stochs on this timespan need to get themselves back up to oversold...

In summation...
The recent decline form the top marked as 5 has satisfied (albeit in a smaller timespan) the requirements for a three wave correction after a 5 wave Advance.

the second leg of this declining correction has been more corrective than impulsive and has me hesitant to suggest that further fulls in the NEAR future are likely.

Price is approaching channel tops on the 4 hrly and 1 hrly.. should price break through this channel resistance we may see the start of another impulsive wave up, BUT I will be observing indicator signals in these areas and trendlines on lower timespans in case this is gold's means of shaking off traders before a mre serious decline.

As stated at the top of this post, from a fundamental and Gap perspective i beleive we have significan downside yet to occur... interim Price action is suggesting this downside may be a while off.