Wednesday, August 31, 2011
Gold scalp on 5 min... looking for more down, but easing in to market
Tuesday, August 30, 2011
Some s_t gold observations
The following Hourly chart is my working chart, and so it is getting a little busy for easy public dissemination. reference back to my twitter blog for as it happened info.
The Adam n Eve formation played out pretty well, and in doing so, a conjectured 50% Retrace of an observed "elongated S" pretty much happened. the red dashed line is the 50% retrace level of that pattern, missed by 5 Gold dollars.
The Black lined channel stood out significantly and gave me the opportunity for a low risk short when price came back to hit the upside... Full advantage of that low risk was taken on that significant break through the top of the conjectured channel, and said short was exited with a small loss.
the old gray matter was not nimble enough to switch to longs so the rest of gold's (Aussie overnight) actionwas left alone. This morning I've had a closer look at the Momentum waves via the MACD as well as price and I See the following.
Currrently price is up at a localised (in the current hrly uptrend) double top level. Marked momentum waves COULD be hinting at a completion of 5 waves upwards (but need the MACD lines to cross over to confirm completion), supported by the stochastics on this time span being back in the Overbought region, again a crossover of THAT indicator required before too much excitement about downside can occur.
ASSUMING that the MACD waves are reflected in price, then a reasonable upside target is the dark green dotted line, a 1.618 extension of the Price level at the top of the momentum wave 1...
All in all though, I am disinclined to take a position either long or short with price at current level...Looking at an even lower timespan of 30 minutes...
Price patterns suggest a toin coss level at the moment, though note the INDICATORS arew suggesting reversal.
As said, not touching this instrument right now... I will let price decide what it wants to do and attempt to ride it when it makes up its mind.
The Black lined channel stood out significantly and gave me the opportunity for a low risk short when price came back to hit the upside... Full advantage of that low risk was taken on that significant break through the top of the conjectured channel, and said short was exited with a small loss.
the old gray matter was not nimble enough to switch to longs so the rest of gold's (Aussie overnight) actionwas left alone. This morning I've had a closer look at the Momentum waves via the MACD as well as price and I See the following.
Currrently price is up at a localised (in the current hrly uptrend) double top level. Marked momentum waves COULD be hinting at a completion of 5 waves upwards (but need the MACD lines to cross over to confirm completion), supported by the stochastics on this time span being back in the Overbought region, again a crossover of THAT indicator required before too much excitement about downside can occur.
ASSUMING that the MACD waves are reflected in price, then a reasonable upside target is the dark green dotted line, a 1.618 extension of the Price level at the top of the momentum wave 1...
All in all though, I am disinclined to take a position either long or short with price at current level...Looking at an even lower timespan of 30 minutes...
As said, not touching this instrument right now... I will let price decide what it wants to do and attempt to ride it when it makes up its mind.
Monday, August 29, 2011
Gold Hourly Followup
Action from the US Session Pretty much followed through from the pre-session analysis...
Hrly Chart:
Tough as it was to do, an Add to the short position on a break of the green trendline came god, with partial profits taken at level of head of second down arrow.
The Red dashed line is 50 percent of the perceived elongated s pattern depicted here (blue segments), and is the "ideal" conservative target based on historical observation of this pattern.
SHOULD price hit that level, there is a high possibility of a good bounce... or... smash through the congestion and make new lows.
Short term price action is suggesting Bounce more likely, with the potential for new highs to come.
Hrly Chart:
The Red dashed line is 50 percent of the perceived elongated s pattern depicted here (blue segments), and is the "ideal" conservative target based on historical observation of this pattern.
SHOULD price hit that level, there is a high possibility of a good bounce... or... smash through the congestion and make new lows.
Short term price action is suggesting Bounce more likely, with the potential for new highs to come.
Gold Hrly n 30 min
Gold is being a masive pain to trade right at this moment, with a tight range n no doubt low volume possibly exacerbated while London enjoys a Bank Holiday.
Hrly Chart
Overall I am short oriented on the slightly longer term, seeing the action of the down move 23-25th Aug, as being as yet an incomplete downtrend.
This chart Appears to me to be showing one of them "elongated S" things and current Action COULD be an adam n Eve top on the shown chart, but until that green upsloping trendline breaks, well I Just don't know... Particularly as one can see a buy signal via the MACD moving averages as marked by ellipses n green arrows on Price and the MACD.
If I had my choices, I would also like to see an opposite such signal now... meaning a higher high on price and a lower high on the MACD Mavs.. not there yet.
Arr n just to highlight the "elongated S" thing, (reference from long winded blog), here's the 30 min with it mapped out (badly) using light blue line segments.
The minimum target for shorts here is the congestion around mid point of this pattern round the 1780 price level on this chart...
In the meantime, small possi still open short, most closed due to lack of patience on my part, perhaps a further opportunity to add may arise...
Resulting Price action Shown Here...
Hrly Chart
This chart Appears to me to be showing one of them "elongated S" things and current Action COULD be an adam n Eve top on the shown chart, but until that green upsloping trendline breaks, well I Just don't know... Particularly as one can see a buy signal via the MACD moving averages as marked by ellipses n green arrows on Price and the MACD.
If I had my choices, I would also like to see an opposite such signal now... meaning a higher high on price and a lower high on the MACD Mavs.. not there yet.
Arr n just to highlight the "elongated S" thing, (reference from long winded blog), here's the 30 min with it mapped out (badly) using light blue line segments.
In the meantime, small possi still open short, most closed due to lack of patience on my part, perhaps a further opportunity to add may arise...
Resulting Price action Shown Here...
Saturday, August 27, 2011
Friday, August 26, 2011
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