Gold Tech View

Heh... Coupla days ago I posted up that gold might be at a level that was good for a short... Since then Gold has made a new high (just) so ummm... that was wrong... :)

In that post I showed a 4 hrly chart with price/wave counts on the MACD and promptly went ahead n said I was ignoring them...

I'm not ignoring them now, n here's the (updated) 4 hrly chart again.

I'd like to draw your attention to the Marked wave counts on the MACD in green, and the corresponding purple counts on price.

Now when I dont ignore these counts ( :) ) this up trend has conformed rather well to my relatively esoteric methodology of using the MACD to determine Price waves... whther these Price waves are EW or Gann Waves (just "discovered" these) or wink Waves or wotever the eff... this sure looks neato to me at the moment. Most specifically being the fact that the fifth marked wave is of noticibly less momentum (lower high MACD Mavs wave 5  than MACD wave 3)

Now, in an ideal situation, when these kinda counts occur as neatly as this on a particular timespan, Before a true Change of direction, I would like to see an opposite occurrence to the marked "uptrend coming" at the start of the MACD count... that is, a finishing move that sees a higher high on price with a lower highthan the ellipsed crossover on the MACDs...

Will this occur? NFI... in the meantime tho, I am putting my pencil neck out there AGAIN saying this current up trend is suggesting it's practically done...

In the meantime I'll be watching price's reaction to the latest black up trend line...

Oh n last nights action whipsawed me all over the place.. magnificent to watch but on the lower timespans the sudden change in speed of price messed with my head and I couldn't hold on.

The kinda trading day I am aiming for

well actually aiming a bit higher but getting there

Potential place to short gold

When i say potential I mean potential this is a dicey area n a lot of gold bulls will be singing Hellelujah new tops baby after that wee pop in the last 3 hrs. (which I DID take longs on now closed)
'kay first a look at the hourly:

'kay it's a working chart n so crowded, Plenty of reasons to stay long. BUT that dotted green line, and price's reaction too it is significant.
Based on wave counts marked on MACD and Ssumptin/conjecture equivalent counts on price...
If the MACD wave count is correct in identifying the price wave count, then wave 1 on price is significant.... It can be said that a good price target, after wave one completion for a wave 5 completion is 1.618 times wave 1.  That is the dotted green line, based on the supposition that the MACD counts are correctly identifying the Price counts.
so current price level, give or take $5 gold dollars, is a rasonable completion of a trend up, und reverse engineering that is a reasonable place for a reversal on this time span. Now sure, check the various pairs of Equal Measure moves arrow on price, we have plenty of scope for higher based purely on them... but if one considers the previous top (to the left n not shown on this chart) as being a significant top, and that gold MAY be in a still to complete downtrend, with this current uptrend being a RETRACE of a first move down... one cane have an expectation that UPSIDE moves in a downtrend will tend to be truncated to the upside.

I am also mindful of the following working 4 hour chart:

Now on this chart I am more inclined to not take too much stock of the MACD counts marked, Primarily again as I am looking at that first drop as POTENTIALLY being wave 1 of either a three wave or 5 wave DOWN.
The marked sones for sell and buy remain from original analysis that helped bring the initial drop to my attention.

Note the bleu marked Fibb retraces here. we ar testing the 71.8 retrace right now, the MACDS are not convncingly up, the stochastics ar Just in the overbought area, all good places  for POTENTIAL RESUMPTION of down trend which could bring price down into the "good buy zone" area.

I am definately not being definitive, n watching the lower timespans for opps for short if they present... Just sayin is all... i don't reckon ANYONE can definitively say uptrend in terms of weeks or Downtrend in terms of weeks at this stage.  Coin toss baby... my thoughts though are dside oriented.

Gold scalp on 5 min... looking for more down, but easing in to market

I think gold is exhibiting signs of preparing for more downside... in the interim I am scalping shorts and loking for opportuinities to add... Entered on break of shown triangle pattern and taken partial profits at completion of pattern target as shown by arrows.

Some s_t gold observations

The following Hourly chart is my working chart, and so it is getting a little busy for easy public dissemination. reference back to my twitter blog for as it happened info.

The Adam n Eve formation played out pretty well, and in doing so, a conjectured 50% Retrace of an observed "elongated S" pretty much happened. the red dashed line is the 50% retrace level of that pattern, missed by 5 Gold dollars.

The Black lined channel stood out significantly and gave me the opportunity for a low risk short when price came back to hit the upside... Full advantage of that low risk was taken on that significant break through the top of the conjectured channel, and said short was exited with a small loss.
the old gray matter was not nimble enough to switch to longs so the rest of gold's (Aussie overnight) actionwas left alone. This morning I've had a closer look at the Momentum waves via the MACD as well as price and I See the following.
Currrently price is up at a localised (in the current hrly uptrend) double top level. Marked momentum waves COULD be hinting at a completion of 5 waves upwards (but need the MACD lines to cross over to confirm completion), supported by the stochastics on this time span being back in the Overbought region, again a crossover of THAT indicator required before too much excitement about downside can occur.

ASSUMING that the MACD waves are reflected in price, then a reasonable upside target is the dark green dotted line, a 1.618 extension of the Price level at the top of the momentum wave 1...


All in all though, I am disinclined to take a position either long or short with price at current level...Looking at an even lower timespan of 30 minutes...

Price patterns suggest a toin coss level at the moment, though note the INDICATORS arew suggesting reversal.

As said, not touching this instrument right now... I will let price decide what it wants to do and attempt to ride it when it makes up its mind.

Gold Hourly Followup

Action from the US Session Pretty much followed through from the pre-session analysis...
Hrly Chart:

Tough as it was to do, an Add to the short position on a break of the green trendline came god, with partial profits taken at level of head of second down arrow.
The Red dashed line is 50 percent of the perceived elongated s pattern depicted here (blue segments), and is the "ideal" conservative target based on historical observation of this pattern.
SHOULD price hit that level, there is a high possibility of a good bounce... or... smash through the congestion and make new lows.
Short term price action is suggesting Bounce more likely, with the potential for new highs to come.

Gold Hrly n 30 min

Gold is being a masive pain to trade right at this moment, with a tight range n no doubt low volume possibly exacerbated while London enjoys a Bank Holiday.
Hrly Chart

Overall I am short oriented on the slightly longer term, seeing the action of the down move 23-25th Aug, as being as yet an incomplete downtrend.

This chart Appears to me to be showing one of them "elongated S" things  and current Action COULD be an adam n Eve top on the shown chart, but until that green upsloping trendline breaks, well I Just don't know... Particularly as one can see a buy signal via the MACD moving averages as marked by ellipses n green arrows on Price and the MACD.
If I had my choices, I would also like to see an opposite such signal now... meaning a higher high on price and a lower high on the MACD Mavs.. not there yet.

Arr n just to highlight the "elongated S" thing, (reference from long winded blog), here's the 30 min with it mapped out (badly) using light blue line segments.

The minimum target for shorts here is the congestion around mid point of this pattern round the 1780 price level on this chart...

In the meantime, small possi still open short, most closed due to lack of patience on my part, perhaps a further opportunity to add may arise...



Resulting Price action Shown Here...